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Derren Brown - The System (Full)

ScepticaTV · documentary · Watch on YouTube

Psychology & human behaviorMagic, puzzles & curiositiesProbability & game theory

What it is

Derren Brown's TV special in which he convinces a person he has a system for predicting horse race winners, demonstrating how survivorship bias and selective outcomes can fake predictive powers.

Why Hacker News recommends it

HN cites it as the classic demonstration of survivorship and confirmation bias in betting, trading and prediction claims.

  • 3 people recommended it
  • 3 different months
  • 1 strong recommendations
  • first 2013, last 2017

What HN commenters said

  1. “This reminds me of Derren Brown's awesome "The System" special”

    Derren Brown's horse-betting special

    Fuzzwah, 2014-11 · Strong recommendation · in “The Day I Lost a Shit-ton of Money, Part I”

  2. “Here's an entertaining video from Derren Brown that shows how to use this technique to convince people you have psychic powers”

    Entertaining demonstration of survivorship bias faking psychic powers

    sgdesign, 2014-09 · Recommendation · in “How to see into the future?”

  3. “For a good example of confirmation bias watch Derren Brown's "The System”

    Good example of confirmation bias via a fake foolproof betting system

    sparkzilla, 2014-12 · Recommendation · in “A Magician’s Best Trick: Revealing a Basic Human Bias”

Excerpts from Hacker News comments, linked to the originals. Summaries and labels were written by a language model from those comments.

Topics: derren brown, confirmation bias, betting systems, psychology, trading

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