A visual guide to Bayesian thinking

What it is

Julia Galef uses pictures to explain Bayes' rule, then tells three personal stories showing how she applies it to improve her thinking.

HN recommends it as a short, accessible intro to Bayesian reasoning and priors.

“The most important mathematical video you will ever see in your life.”
Improves rational thinking with Bayesian reasoning.
mathzthrowaway6, 2017-08 · Strong recommendation · in “The Kolmogorov option”
“This video is short and accessible”
Short accessible intro to prior probability.
thrwaway190220, 2019-02 · Recommendation · in “Google says Nest’s built-in mic not listed in specs was not meant to be secret”
“Bayesian statistics at play here... Good explanation”
Good explanation of Bayesian statistics.
techsin101, 2021-08 · Recommendation · in “How is efficacy vs. severe disease strong if 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?”

Excerpts from Hacker News comments, linked to the originals. Summaries and labels were written by a language model from those comments.

Topics: bayes rule, probability, rationality, priors, critical thinking