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Is AI Safety a Pascal's Mugging?

Robert Miles AI Safety · explainer · Watch on YouTube

AI safety, AGI & impactProbability & game theory

What it is

Robert Miles examines whether the case for AI safety is a Pascal's mugging, a tiny probability of an enormous payoff. He argues it is not, because AI risk does not depend on vanishingly small probabilities.

Why Hacker News recommends it

HN points to it as a reasoned rebuttal to the claim that AI risk is just Pascal's wager.

  • 3 people recommended it
  • 4 different months
  • 0 strong recommendations
  • first 2019, last 2026

What HN commenters said

  1. “See this video on a reasonable argument about this”

    Argues AI safety is not a Pascal's mugging.

    chii, 2019-05 · Recommendation · in “Sam Altman’s leap of faith”

  2. “Maybe we can look to them for insight in to these questions?”

    Safety researchers have long debated whether AI risk is a Pascal's mugging.

    mptest, 2023-07 · Recommendation · in “OpenAI: Introducing SuperAlignment”

  3. “You can’t just call anything that has very bad negative consequences Pascal’s wager”

    Explains why AI risk differs from Pascal's wager.

    circuit10, 2023-08 · Recommendation · in “AI Causes Real Harm. Let’s Focus on That over the End-of-Humanity Hype”

Excerpts from Hacker News comments, linked to the originals. Summaries and labels were written by a language model from those comments.

Topics: pascal's mugging, ai risk, robert miles, decision theory, existential risk

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